In the light of the recent dumps I have been reevaluating my ROI calculation.
If we want to put the bar low my ROI calculation is as follows:
In 2017 the digital game asset trading market racked up $50 billion.
Let’s assume the market grows to about $80 billion, unfortunately I have no numbers to make more than an educated guess, but considering the implementation of blockchains interfaces into AAA engines like Unity, Unreal and CryEngine and the growing market of Crypto collectibles I think this target is set low enough to be close.
Let’s further assume 25% percent of these $80 billion are traded through WAX, considering that OPSkins is the market leader in digital game asset trading and the revival of skin gambling, what would leave us with $20 billion.
Currently the fees on digital item trades vary roughly between 10 and 20%, we do expect the fees on WAX to be way lower so for the sake of the calculation let’s assume an average of 5%. So we get round about 1 Billion USD in fees just in the first year.
The current circulating supply should be round about 800.000.000, let’s assume it raises to 1 Billion WAX until protocol coin release we are left with a payout of $1 per WAX over the course of the first year, not accounting for transfer agents in this case.Also not considering the worth of the bridging tokens that will remain in circulation and additionally serve as means of payment and the airdrops that will follow. Considering the targeted ROI of 25% by most VCs we can estimate a token value of at least $4 after Blockchain release. Factor in the airdrops and payment/bridging token we should be able to up this to at least $5 just to please VCs that are looking for short term gain. Factoring in the potential market growth and other use cases I’m rather expecting a coin value of $10 to 20 prior to blockchain release. The current coin value after the drop from ATH of over $2 it’s now traded around 0.12 cents. So it’s currently traded below ICO.
Of course this is pure speculation but please correct me if you think my calculation is off and point me to my mistake.
I value input 🙂
For a quick fact check on WAX go here.
For a quick outlook and possible use-cases check this post.
For a more in depth view check this post.